The Iran nuclear deal overcame its latest obstacle when a resolution of disapproval scheduled for 9/11 failed in the U.S. Congress. All P5 + 1 nations are now on the record as committed to implementing the accord. The blow is not only to Republicans who voted in unison against it. The AIPAC lobby will face questions of viability, having spent millions to try and defeat it. New forces claiming to represent the interests of Israel, like J Street, rose up to support the deal. Now they will seek to press their advantage by gaining greater influence in U.S. politics. They may succeed in achieving new organizational strength, wealthy donors, and greater publicity. Politicians that are already in favor of their views will be happy to give these groups a platform.
It’s also as likely that AIPAC will punch back harder, probing for weakness in swing states. A reaction is in the making. What’s at question is if it will be from Conservative AIPAC, or U.S. Jews tired of its out-sized clout. Jews are among the most liberal, Democratic groups in U.S. politics. But pro-peace voices will have to ready themselves for organized combat against their competitors. If they want influence, they will have to take it from a lobby unwilling to let its prized position fall away.